Is Cardiff City This Year’s Reading?
Take a look at the table from last season, and one thing is clear: Cardiff City shouldn’t be in the EFL Championship. The Bluebirds just barely finished 21st and managed safety, but only on a technicality. Reading met the drop instead of Cardiff for one reason: the Royals breached a business plan and got a six-point deduction. Without that, they’d have finished on 50 points, compared to 49 for Cardiff City.
And now Cardiff finds itself in the exact same spot Reading was in last year. A year ago, Reading finished 21st, just barely spared from life in League One. The Royals couldn’t avoid the drop a second time, and they’re now no longer a Championship side.
Could Cardiff follow their example? The Bluebirds were 5th in the league three years ago, but they sunk to 21st in 2023. They’re heading in the wrong direction, and the only positive is that they shouldn’t suffer a points deduction. Here’s a look at their plight.
The Home Form Was Atrocious Last Season
Six wins out of 23 at home just isn’t good enough, nor is Cardiff’s inability to get results after giving up a goal. In all six of the Bluebirds’ home victories last season, Cardiff didn’t give up a single goal. Oddly enough, Cardiff showed much better form away from home, as its final three wins all came with both teams finding the net and away from home.
If Cardiff is going to get through another year in the Championship, it has to get more out of its home matches. Ten out of 23 foes came to Cardiff and took all three points off the Bluebirds. That can’t happen again.
The Offense Has to Improve
With 41 goals last season, Cardiff finished with the second-lowest total in the Championship. Only Wigan scored fewer, and the Latics are now a League One side. Only three out of 23 home matches saw the Bluebirds score more than one goal, and they never exceeded two goals in a season on their own ground.
Callum Robinson has proven a solid scorer and talisman, but he needs someone else to provide some help. Sory Kaba was acceptable last season, but even with him in the fold, Cardiff didn’t produce much of a threat. His loan is now over, and someone has to step up to keep foes from focusing on Robinson only.
A Little Relief is on the Way
Cardiff City has received a shortened EFL transfer embargo, now expiring in January 2024 instead of the summer of that year. The club had been penalized for defaulting on the transfer payment for Emiliano Sala, who tragically passed away in a plane crash.
Although Cardiff lost their appeal against FIFA’s initial decision, the EFL’s independent disciplinary commission recognized “exceptional circumstances” in the club’s case. While still restricted to free transfers or loans this summer, Cardiff will be free to engage in normal transfer activities by the mid-season window of 2023-24. Chairman Mehmet Dalman indicated that the club has been preparing for player recruitment with this potential development in mind and looks forward to an “exciting” next few days as they align their targets with new manager Erol Bulut.
Erol Bulut Has to Adjust Quickly
Cardiff City has settled on Erol Bulut as their new manager, making him the fifth to take the helm in just one season. Replacing Sabri Lamouchi, whose contract ended recently, Bulut brings a rich European coaching resume. Born in Germany and a former Turkey U-21 player, Bulut’s managerial expertise has impressed owner Vincent Tan, who believes this experience will elevate Cardiff’s profile and attract top-tier players.
With that being said, the Championship is a tough league, and new manager Bulut has no experience in English football. He did guide Alanyaspor to a runner-up spot in the Turkish Cup three years ago, but his Gaziantep side sunk pretty rapidly following the Turkish earthquake. The defense played decently at times before Gaziantep’s withdrawal, but they didn’t turn those performances into wins. Over the final 12 matches with Bulut in charge, Gaziantep won just twice, taking six defeats and four draws. He’s got to find something he didn’t show previously to get Cardiff to survival.
Can They Beat the Drop?
Cardiff faces an uphill battle, given the departure of key loan players and a scoring drought. Fans have a love-hate relationship with owner Vincent Tan and are hungry for stability in management and football expertise in the boardroom. While there is some excitement around Bulut’s arrival, he’s also untested in the league. Key players from the last season have moved on, but the fanbase is hopeful that Ryan Wintle and emerging talent Rubin Colwill will shine. Expectations for the season’s end vary, but a finish anywhere outside of relegation should be celebrated as a significant achievement.
