Cheltenham’s Goal Drought: Analyzing the Struggles of the 2023-24 Season

With five league matches and a cup tie under the belts of most EFL sides, it’s starting to become a bit more clear what teams’ identities will be over the course of 2023-24. And in the case of Cheltenham, it’s looking like the word to describe the Robins is “toothless”.

Cheltenham boss Wade Elliott clearly disagrees, as he’s gone on record saying that the goals will come even as Cheltenham remains the only side in the English Football League without a goal to its name. The Robins have gone 0-1-4 in five league matches and failed to register a shot on target in a 2-0 EFL Cup loss to Birmingham City. The drought should end against either Northampton or Barnsley, who have allowed a combined 12 goals this season, but it’s not for nothing that Cheltenham isn’t scoring. Here’s why.

The Absence of Key Strikers and Lack of Possession

The idea that possession is nine-tenths the law in soccer has long gone out the window, but the fact remains that if you cannot possess the ball, you need to have a reliable plan to counter-attack. Cheltenham’s plan was Alfie May, but he’s now with Charlton after giving Cheltenham 43 goals in the past two seasons.

With nobody up top to lead a counter, Cheltenham’s lack of possession has been alarming. Other than the opener with Shrewsbury, easily the Robins’ best showing of the year, the best Cheltenham has done is 39% possession. Against Portsmouth last time out, Cheltenham had the ball 27% of the time and got one shot on goal.

Wasteful Attempts: A Closer Look at Shot Efficiency

It’s hard to score when you barely test the keeper. Cheltenham has just 10 shots on target in five total matches against EFL opponents. You can’t fault them too much for generating just two shots total against a bigger Birmingham City, but they aren’t getting chances against League One opponents either. In its past three matches, Cheltenham has averaged eight shots and just two on target. That won’t work against any decent defense.

The Injury Conundrum: Is There a Light at the End of the Tunnel?

This is Elliott’s argument: Cheltenham’s played without midfielders James Olayinka and Oli Hammond, as well as forwards Will Goodwin and George Lloyd. But none of these players have shown themselves to be scorers. All are younger players who might make a difference one day, but Cheltenham needs goals now. There’s nobody on the roster who can definitely provide a scoring touch.

Once Cheltenham gets healthy, it’ll be interesting to see if that changes how the Robins attack. For now, it looks like if they’re not going to be aggressive in the transfer window, this problem might not get better anytime soon.