Gillingham’s Defensive Prowess: A True Indicator of EFL League Two Dominance?

Through three matches, Gillingham has set the pace in EFL League Two, and it’s done so with its defense. The Gills are the only side in League Two that hasn’t given up a goal yet, winning all three of its matches by a 1-0 count. And yet, there’s a worry that this isn’t going to last, given how the offense just hasn’t been up to snuff.

And truth be told, the concerns are likely valid in this case. Here’s why Gillingham probably isn’t going to spend the year in a promotion place in League Two.

The Gills Still Can’t Score

Last year, Gillingham had the weakest offense in League Two, scoring just 35 goals in 46 matches. The year before, they had the weakest offense in League One. It’s been a staple ever since the pandemic hit that Gillingham just can’t get the ball into the net, and a lack of scoring options is partially to blame.

The Gills have one player scoring, as Ashley Nadesan has scored two of three league goals, plus one goal in the cup tie with Southampton. Nadesan has been a decent scorer prior to his move to Gillingham, but not a great one by any means. He has just 32 league goals for his career in 164 matches, and that’s really a number you’d expect from a decent scorer who wasn’t a top striking option. But with nobody else looking like they can score and Gillingham needing goals, Nadesan has to keep this pace up to keep the Gills winning.

Defense-Heavy Soccer Is Risky Business

In the EFL, it takes offense as well as defense to get into a promotion slot. Historically, a team almost always needs a double-digit positive goal differential before it can realistically think about winning promotion. If you aren’t scoring much, that’s hard to do. You’re going to have breakdowns eventually, and the way you respond will dictate how successful you are over the course of nine months. If you can’t respond with a marker, wins will eventually turn to draws and draws to defeats. Gillingham has to learn to attack.

Soft Opening Slate

Let’s be honest: Sutton United and Stockport don’t exactly fill League Two sides with dread. Only four sides have given up more in three matches than Sutton, and Stockport already occupies a slot just above the drop zone. As the schedule gets tougher, the wins are going to get tougher to achieve. Against this stretch, Gillingham needed to start well.

It’s much better to be in this position than struggling in the season’s first month. But an early start guarantees nothing, especially when the way you win isn’t that sustainable. If Gillingham doesn’t find an offense soon, it’s a matter of time until the wins dry up.